"AI on the Horizon: Experts Predict 50% Chance of Machines Outperforming Humans in All Tasks by 2047, Survey Reveals"

A recent survey on the progress of artificial intelligence (AI) has unveiled remarkable findings, indicating a swift and startling advancement in the field. The study, known as the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, represents the largest of its kind, with insights gathered from 2,778 authors renowned for their work in top industry publications and forums. This survey, the third in a series following studies conducted in 2016 and 2022, provides a snapshot of the evolving perceptions within the AI community.

The survey participants, a fourfold increase from the previous year, were surveyed in the fall of 2023, a period marked by substantial progress in AI development. This included the launch of noteworthy models such as ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude 2, Google's Bard and Gemini, alongside the dissemination of two AI safety letters and notable government actions in the U.S., UK, and EU.

One of the standout revelations from the survey is the consensus among experts that unaided machines could outperform humans in all possible tasks. Respondents expressed that if scientific progress continues unabated, there is a 10% chance of machines achieving this milestone by 2027 and a staggering 50% chance by 2047. Furthermore, the survey raises concerns about the potential automatability of all human occupations, positing a 10% likelihood by 2037.

The survey delves into the potential risks associated with advanced AI, including a disconcerting 10% chance that it could lead to "severe disempowerment" and, alarmingly, even human extinction. These concerns echo the sentiments of those subscribing to "existential risk" beliefs in the AI community, closely aligned with the effective altruism (EA) movement.

While acknowledging the optimistic scenarios that highlight AI's potential to revolutionize various aspects of life, researchers emphasize the importance of recognizing the high stakes involved in AI development and deployment. The survey's findings underscore the rapid evolution of opinions within the AI community over just a year, with predictions for specific tasks shifting earlier for the majority of them.

The study also sheds light on expectations regarding the feasibility of tasks for AI within the next decade. Tasks such as translating text in newfound languages, recognizing objects seen only once, and writing Python code are predicted to have at least a 50% chance of becoming feasible within the next 10 years. However, some tasks, like solving long-standing mathematical problems or physically installing electrical wiring in a new home, are anticipated to take longer.

Moving beyond task feasibility, the survey explores the timeline for achieving High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) and Full Automation of Labor (FAOL). Respondents predict a 50% chance of HLMI by 2047, a significant advancement from the 2022 survey, while FAOL is estimated to have a 50% chance by the year 2116, down by 48 years from the prior year.

The survey delves into concerns regarding the traits of state-of-the-art AI systems by 2043, with a majority expressing worry about unexpected ways to achieve goals, human-like communication, and surprising behavior. Participants also highlighted concerns about the use of AI for disseminating false information, manipulating public opinion, creating powerful tools for dangerous groups, and potential economic inequality exacerbation.

In light of these concerns, there is a strong consensus among participants about the need to prioritize AI safety research. However, the survey indicates a close split between positive and negative perceptions of AI's impact, with more than half anticipating positive outcomes but acknowledging the nontrivial possibility of extremely negative consequences.

It is crucial to note the limitations acknowledged by the researchers, who emphasize the challenge of predicting the future of AI even for experts. The survey concludes by asserting that despite these limitations, AI researchers are well-positioned to contribute to refining our collective understanding of the future, acknowledging the reliance on educated guesses in the absence of certainties.